Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. They writes two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but each side has has important lessons to gain from the other's positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
