Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension sparked by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, political struggles are waged: optimistic declarations are delivered from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on containing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from Russian territory, a ability enabled by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been dispatched to engage hostile guided weapons streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: defensive missiles targeted at a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably provided by Western nations. Every launch shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly transforms into grim resignation: perhaps the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – probably Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its objective.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: seven people killed, damage and heating outages in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a dependence that European nations are clearly incapable to substitute in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from American leadership generated strong feelings, debate and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from US leadership follows the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This pattern will, certainly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration functions according to a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration presumes that it is impossible to force Russia to abandon the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but avoiding a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its favour.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not switch to internal issues. And although their task will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to terminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
